WoS: WOS:000805560200001
Scopus: SCOPUS_ID:85131301115
2022
artículo de investigación
Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040–2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%–23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.
| Revista | ISSN |
|---|---|
| Journal Of Biogeography | 0305-0270 |
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| WOS |
|---|
| Geography, Physical |
| Ecology |
| Scopus |
|---|
| Ecology |
| Ecology, Evolution, Behavior And Systematics |
| SciELO |
|---|
| Sin Disciplinas |
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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.
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| Fuente |
|---|
| Agencia Nacional de Promoción Científica y Tecnológica |
| Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas |
| ANPCyT |
| UBACyT |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico |
| Basal |
| Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación Productiva |
| European Research Council |
| British Council |
| Horizon 2020 Framework Programme |
| Secretaría de Ciencia y Técnica, Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo |
| Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo de Chile |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico -Chile |
| Swiss Orchid Foundation |
| Lucia Hudson |
| Argentinean National Council of Research |
| FONDECYT Peru - Banco Mundial |
| EU Horizon 2020 Research 479 and Innovation Programme |
| Lady Sainsbury Orchid Fellowship |
| CONICET/MINCyT |
| REDI-CONICYT |
| Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico, Tecnologico y de Innovacion Tecnologica -Peru/Banco Mundial |
| UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy |
| French National Programme LEFE/INSU |
Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.
| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| We would like to thank Lucia Hudson for helping in collating information from the SDM studies. This work was the result of a Newton Fund Workshop organised in 2018 in Mendoza, Argentina, funded by a Researcher Links grant, ID 2017‐RLWK9‐359514245 from the UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and CONICET/MINCyT and delivered by the British Council and the Argentinean National Council of Research (CONICET). Most co‐authors, except for A.A. and S.G.A.F. attended the workshop. A.S, A.F.C., R.R., P.Z, C.G.M., L.F. and P.F. were partially supported by ANPCyT (PICT‐2018‐02511, PICT‐2017‐3020), CONICET (PIP‐112‐2015‐0100402CO, 112‐2020‐0102141CO) and UBACYT (20020170100620BA) projects, and by the French National Programme LEFE/INSU (AO 2020‐12962). O.A.P.E. was supported by the Lady Sainsbury Orchid Fellowship and the Swiss Orchid Foundation. A.G.G. was supported by the FONDECYT Chile grant 1200468 and REDI‐CONICYT 170321. D.A. was supported by FONDECYT Chile 3200675 grant. A.P. was funded by FONDECYT Chile 1180205. A.P. and A.G.G. were funded by ANID/BASAL FB21000. M.E.F. was partially supported by FONDECYT Peru ‐ Banco Mundial 039‐2019‐FONDECYT‐BM‐INV. S.G.A.F. was supported by the European Research Council under the EU Horizon 2020 Research 479 and Innovation Programme (grant 741413 HOPE) Humans on Planet Earth—Long‐term impacts on biosphere dynamics. No permits were needed to carry out this research. |
| We would like to thank Lucia Hudson for helping in collating information from the SDM studies. This work was the result of a Newton Fund Workshop organised in 2018 in Mendoza, Argentina, funded by a Researcher Links grant, ID 2017‐RLWK9‐359514245 from the UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and CONICET/MINCyT and delivered by the British Council and the Argentinean National Council of Research (CONICET). Most co‐authors, except for A.A. and S.G.A.F. attended the workshop. A.S, A.F.C., R.R., P.Z, C.G.M., L.F. and P.F. were partially supported by ANPCyT (PICT‐2018‐02511, PICT‐2017‐3020), CONICET (PIP‐112‐2015‐0100402CO, 112‐2020‐0102141CO) and UBACYT (20020170100620BA) projects, and by the French National Programme LEFE/INSU (AO 2020‐12962). O.A.P.E. was supported by the Lady Sainsbury Orchid Fellowship and the Swiss Orchid Foundation. A.G.G. was supported by the FONDECYT Chile grant 1200468 and REDI‐CONICYT 170321. D.A. was supported by FONDECYT Chile 3200675 grant. A.P. was funded by FONDECYT Chile 1180205. A.P. and A.G.G. were funded by ANID/BASAL FB21000. M.E.F. was partially supported by FONDECYT Peru ‐ Banco Mundial 039‐2019‐FONDECYT‐BM‐INV. S.G.A.F. was supported by the European Research Council under the EU Horizon 2020 Research 479 and Innovation Programme (grant 741413 HOPE) Humans on Planet Earth—Long‐term impacts on biosphere dynamics. No permits were needed to carry out this research. |
| UK Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Grant/Award Number: 2017-RLWK9-359514245; CONICET/MINCyT; British Council; Argentinean National Council of Research, Grant/Award Number: PIP-112-2015-0100402CO and 112-2020-0102141CO; ANPCyT, Grant/Award Number: PICT-2017-3020 and PICT-2018-02511; UBACYT, Grant/Award Number: 20020170100620BA; French National Programme LEFE/INSU, Grant/Award Number: AO 2020-12962; Lady Sainsbury Orchid Fellowship; Swiss Orchid Foundation; Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico, Tecnologico y de Innovacion Tecnologica -Peru/Banco Mundial, Grant/Award Number: 039-2019-FONDECYT-BM-INV; REDI-CONICYT, Grant/Award Number: 170321; European Research Council, Grant/Award Number: 741413 HOPE; Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Cientifico y Tecnologico -Chile, Grant/Award Number: 3200675, 1180205 and 1200468; Agencia Nacional de Investigacion y Desarrollo de Chile, Grant/Award Number: BASAL-FB210006 |
Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.