WoS: WOS:000996902200001
Scopus: SCOPUS_ID:85160620700
2023
artículo de investigación
Completing a project on time and on budget are essential factors for the success of any project. One technique that allows predicting the final cost of a project is earned value management (EVM). In this technique, different mathematical methods for predicting the final project cost have been proposed over the last 30 years. These formulas make use of activities’ actual costs and durations as the project progresses. EVM is a technique widely used by many project management professionals. However, very few studies have compared the stability and accuracy of the multiple existing methods for predicting the final cost of the project (commonly abbreviated as estimated cost at completion, EAC). This study compares the stability and accuracy of 30 deterministic cost prediction methods (EAC) in EVM. For this purpose, a representative database of 4100 simulated projects of various topological structures is used. Our results suggest that the methods with the simplest mathematical configurations achieve better stability and accuracy performance. Knowing which EVM methods are the most stable and accurate for predicting the final cost of the project will help project practitioners choose the most reliable cost prediction techniques when they are managing their own projects in real contexts.
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| WOS |
|---|
| Construction & Building Technology |
| Engineering, Civil |
| Scopus |
|---|
| Architecture |
| Civil And Structural Engineering |
| Building And Construction |
| SciELO |
|---|
| Sin Disciplinas |
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Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.
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| Fuente |
|---|
| Universidad de Talca |
| Program Fondecyt Regular |
| Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo |
| Ministerio de Universidades |
| Ministry of Universities (Spain) |
| Programa de Doctorado en Sistemas de Ingeniería |
| Program European Union-Next Generation EU |
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| Agradecimiento |
|---|
| The first author would like to thank the Universidad de Talca for his grant from the Programa de Doctorado en Sistemas de Ingeniería (RU-056-2019). In addition, this work was supported by the Program Fondecyt Regular (project 1210410) of the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (ANID), Chile. It was also supported by the Ministry of Universities (Spain) and the Program European Union–Next Generation EU. |
| This research was funded by the Program Fondecyt Regular, grant number 1210410. It was also funded by the Ministry of Universities (Spain) and the Program European Union-Next Generation EU. |
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