Future temperature-related labour loss due to premature deaths: a multi-country study

Indexado

Scopus: SCOPUS_ID:105030583852

Año

2026

Tipo

artículo de investigación

0
Citas Totales
0
Autores Afiliación Chile
0
Instituciones Chile
0
% Participación Internacional
0
Autores Afiliación Extranjera
0
Instituciones Extranjeras

Abstract

The ongoing climate change is expected to lead to a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. However, the impact of cold and hot temperatures on labour loss, through causing premature deaths in the future, remains largely unknown. We collected historic daily all-cause mortality data during 1986–2019 from 1066 locations in seven countries. A two-stage time-series approach was applied to estimate associations between non-optimum temperatures and the productivity-adjusted life year (PALY) loss due to premature deaths. These associations were then combined with projected daily temperatures under three climate change scenarios from 2021 to 2100 to quantify future PALY losses attributable to temperatures. Overall, we projected an increase in heat-related PALY loss and a decrease in cold-related PALY loss in the future. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the heat-related PALY loss is projected to increase by 7.5% by the end of 2100 compared to the historical period (2001-2020), resulting in a net increase in excess PALY loss of 6.8%, greater than the net changes projected under the SSP3-7.0 (5.7%) and SSP1-2.6 (0.6%) scenarios. Brazil and Thailand were projected to experience an increase in excess heat-related PALY loss, while a reduction in excess cold-related PALY loss was projected to be most prominent in Thailand. The magnitude of the change in both heat- and cold-related PALY loss was largely affected by socioeconomic factors, such as GDP per capita and the deprivation level. This study provides a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on labour loss and provides evidence to inform targeted adaptation strategies and policy responses aimed at mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change.

Revista

Revista ISSN
10960953 00139351

Métricas Externas

PlumX Altmetric Dimensions
INFORMACIÓN

Muestra métricas de impacto externas asociadas a la publicación. Para mayor detalle:

Disciplinas de Investigación

WOS
Sin Disciplinas
Scopus
Sin Disciplinas
SciELO
Sin Disciplinas
INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la distribución de disciplinas para esta publicación.

Publicaciones WoS (Ediciones: ISSHP, ISTP, AHCI, SSCI, SCI), Scopus, SciELO Chile.

Colaboración Institucional

INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la distribución de colaboración, tanto nacional como extranjera, generada en esta publicación.

Autores - Afiliación

INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la afiliación y género (detectado) para los co-autores de la publicación.

Origen de Citas Identificadas - Pais

INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la distribución de países cuyos autores citan a la publicación consultada.

Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: NaN %
Citas No-identificadas: NaN %

Origen de Citas Identificadas - Institución

INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la distribución de instituciones nacionales o extranjeras cuyos autores citan a la publicación consultada.

Citas identificadas: Las citas provienen de documentos incluidos en la base de datos de DATACIENCIA

Citas Identificadas: NaN %
Citas No-identificadas: NaN %

Financiamiento

Fuente
[{'@iso-code': 'aus', '$': 'National Health and Medical Research Council'}]
INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Agradecimientos

Agradecimiento
ZA was supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (GNT2012582). RX was supported by VicHealth Postdoctoral Research Fellowships 2022. SL was supported by an Emerging Leader Fellowship (GNT2009866) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/). YG was supported by Leader Fellowship (GNT2008813) of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (https://www.nhmrc.gov.au/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
INFORMACIÓN

Muestra la fuente de financiamiento declarada en la publicación.

Descarga los datos de esta página

Perfil Artículo